Hurricane Wilma Information
NBC2 News Online - Wilma: The track, the intensity & what you should expect: "FORT MYERS, 2:00 p.m. — Satellite pictures this afternoon show that Hurricane Wilma is maintaining her strength as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Her high winds are at an incredible 160 mph, as the storm sits about 270 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.
The storm's intensity, measured by barometric pressure from a hurricane hunter aircraft this morning at 882 mbs or 26.05' of mercury makes Wilma not only the strongest of all of this year's hurricanes – but that pressure measurement is the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Wilma continues to wobble between west and west-northwest at about 7 mph. An eventual turn to a more northwesterly track is expected over the next 24 hours.
But the thinking on the path and intensity of the storm hasn't changed much since 8 a.m.
INTENSITY
While it is quite possible that Wilma will set the record for the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin, it is not possible for her to maintain that intensity for very long.
Currently, Wilma is a lot like Charley was. Early this morning, hurricane force winds only extend about 15 miles from the 2-4 nautical mile-wide eye, embedded in a much larger tropical storm force wind field. (By 11 a.m. the hurricane force winds extended out 50 miles.)
Unlike Charley, Wilma is not about to make landfall. It still has lots of very warm water to cross with nearly ideal upper-level conditions.
Still, hurricanes can not physically maintain such intensity for very long and Wilma will very likely enter an eyewall replacement cycle, if she hasn't done so already.
This will tend to raise the central pressure, decrease the maximum sustained winds and broaden that currently narrow wind field.
Similar scenarios took place earlier this year with hurricanes Katrina and Rita. After those storms peaked and weakened, they never strengthened again because of more hostile upper-level conditions or making landfall before they had the chance to reorganize.
Wilma will likely have the opportunity to go through the complete cycle, strengthening again before trying to slip through the Yucatan Channel.
After that, however, a gradual weakening is expected as the storm interacts with the Yucatan and Cuba and as the upper-level winds become more hostile in the Gulf of Mexico.
The bottom line is that Wilma will not be a category 5 hurricane when she makes it to Florida. We expect a category 3 hurricane, but with a much broader wind field than currently.
The current swath of hurricane force winds is only about 35 miles wide –a swath of hurricane force winds about 3 times that size is expected by the weekend.
TRACK
The track of Wilma is not as complex. Over the last 24 hours, the models have been in good agreement, all bringing Wilma northwest for the next few days, passing through, or very close to the Yucatan Channel Friday.
From there, the models show a hard east turn and acceleration towards south Florida.
With still over three days until a possible landfall, the models have focused in on an area between Punta Gorda and Key West, with the most likely location near Marco Island.
From there, the models show a northeast track to just north of Palm Beach.
Even though the models are showing consistency, the storm is still a long way off, and dramatic changes are still possible.
Everyone in south Florida should base their actions on the assumption that they will take the full force of this hurricane by Saturday night.
WHAT YOU SHOULD EXPECT
If Wilma stays on track, south Florida can expect weather conditions to rapidly deteriorate on Saturday, with the center of Wilma passing through Saturday night.
The storm should be moving close to 20 mph at that time, so conditions will be much improved by Sunday morning, and rainfall amounts should be no more than 5 to 10 inches.
The storm will be much worse on the south, or right side of the storm track. Areas along and just to the right of the center will experience sustained winds of 115-125 mph, with a storm surge up to 15 feet.
North of the center, sustained winds around 100 mph will taper to tropical storm force in about 30-40 miles, with no storm surge, except for some above normal tides on Sunday as winds veer to the west and northwest.
Of course, any change in the forecast intensity will produce a change in the expected weather."
Reuters"MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma became the fiercest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded as it churned towards western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, threatening densely populated Florida after killing 10 people in Haiti.
The season's record-tying 21st storm, fuelled by the warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, strengthened with unprecedented speed into a Category 5 hurricane, the top rank on the five-step scale of hurricane intensity.
Oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico were expected to escape this storm but Florida's orange groves were at risk.
Early Wednesday, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane measured top sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph) and logged a minimum pressure of 882 millibars, the lowest ever observed in the Atlantic basin. That meant Wilma was briefly stronger than any Atlantic storm on record, including both Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in late August, and Rita, which hit the Texas-Louisiana coast in September.
Wilma's top winds weakened to 160 mph (260 kph) by early evening. It was still a potentially catastrophic Category 5 storm but forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre said it could weaken further once it slips into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
Computer models used to predict its long-term path diverged widely, though Hurricane Centre Director Max Mayfield said it was still likely to slice across southern Florida as a formidable hurricane on Saturday and Sunday.
Wilma was expected to miss oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico but some energy companies evacuated nonessential workers from drilling platforms in the central and eastern Gulf as a precaution..."
The storm's intensity, measured by barometric pressure from a hurricane hunter aircraft this morning at 882 mbs or 26.05' of mercury makes Wilma not only the strongest of all of this year's hurricanes – but that pressure measurement is the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Wilma continues to wobble between west and west-northwest at about 7 mph. An eventual turn to a more northwesterly track is expected over the next 24 hours.
But the thinking on the path and intensity of the storm hasn't changed much since 8 a.m.
INTENSITY
While it is quite possible that Wilma will set the record for the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin, it is not possible for her to maintain that intensity for very long.
Currently, Wilma is a lot like Charley was. Early this morning, hurricane force winds only extend about 15 miles from the 2-4 nautical mile-wide eye, embedded in a much larger tropical storm force wind field. (By 11 a.m. the hurricane force winds extended out 50 miles.)
Unlike Charley, Wilma is not about to make landfall. It still has lots of very warm water to cross with nearly ideal upper-level conditions.
Still, hurricanes can not physically maintain such intensity for very long and Wilma will very likely enter an eyewall replacement cycle, if she hasn't done so already.
This will tend to raise the central pressure, decrease the maximum sustained winds and broaden that currently narrow wind field.
Similar scenarios took place earlier this year with hurricanes Katrina and Rita. After those storms peaked and weakened, they never strengthened again because of more hostile upper-level conditions or making landfall before they had the chance to reorganize.
Wilma will likely have the opportunity to go through the complete cycle, strengthening again before trying to slip through the Yucatan Channel.
After that, however, a gradual weakening is expected as the storm interacts with the Yucatan and Cuba and as the upper-level winds become more hostile in the Gulf of Mexico.
The bottom line is that Wilma will not be a category 5 hurricane when she makes it to Florida. We expect a category 3 hurricane, but with a much broader wind field than currently.
The current swath of hurricane force winds is only about 35 miles wide –a swath of hurricane force winds about 3 times that size is expected by the weekend.
TRACK
The track of Wilma is not as complex. Over the last 24 hours, the models have been in good agreement, all bringing Wilma northwest for the next few days, passing through, or very close to the Yucatan Channel Friday.
From there, the models show a hard east turn and acceleration towards south Florida.
With still over three days until a possible landfall, the models have focused in on an area between Punta Gorda and Key West, with the most likely location near Marco Island.
From there, the models show a northeast track to just north of Palm Beach.
Even though the models are showing consistency, the storm is still a long way off, and dramatic changes are still possible.
Everyone in south Florida should base their actions on the assumption that they will take the full force of this hurricane by Saturday night.
WHAT YOU SHOULD EXPECT
If Wilma stays on track, south Florida can expect weather conditions to rapidly deteriorate on Saturday, with the center of Wilma passing through Saturday night.
The storm should be moving close to 20 mph at that time, so conditions will be much improved by Sunday morning, and rainfall amounts should be no more than 5 to 10 inches.
The storm will be much worse on the south, or right side of the storm track. Areas along and just to the right of the center will experience sustained winds of 115-125 mph, with a storm surge up to 15 feet.
North of the center, sustained winds around 100 mph will taper to tropical storm force in about 30-40 miles, with no storm surge, except for some above normal tides on Sunday as winds veer to the west and northwest.
Of course, any change in the forecast intensity will produce a change in the expected weather."
Reuters"MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma became the fiercest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded as it churned towards western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, threatening densely populated Florida after killing 10 people in Haiti.
The season's record-tying 21st storm, fuelled by the warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, strengthened with unprecedented speed into a Category 5 hurricane, the top rank on the five-step scale of hurricane intensity.
Oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico were expected to escape this storm but Florida's orange groves were at risk.
Early Wednesday, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane measured top sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph) and logged a minimum pressure of 882 millibars, the lowest ever observed in the Atlantic basin. That meant Wilma was briefly stronger than any Atlantic storm on record, including both Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in late August, and Rita, which hit the Texas-Louisiana coast in September.
Wilma's top winds weakened to 160 mph (260 kph) by early evening. It was still a potentially catastrophic Category 5 storm but forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre said it could weaken further once it slips into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
Computer models used to predict its long-term path diverged widely, though Hurricane Centre Director Max Mayfield said it was still likely to slice across southern Florida as a formidable hurricane on Saturday and Sunday.
Wilma was expected to miss oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico but some energy companies evacuated nonessential workers from drilling platforms in the central and eastern Gulf as a precaution..."
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